5X Multibagger Stocks as Premium Pick · SpiceJet Ltd · Sept18

SpiceJet

Hi Dost,

First of all sorry for not posting anything in August, looking back we can agree it was a wise n well anticipated move. Mr. Market is in full bear grip.

Second thing is that I got lot of interaction with fellow Valueguyz who are pissed with losses in recent Premium picks. I can very well understand there agony & reminded them that I am also in the same boat.

But this raises a question at the integrity of fellow Valueguyz

My research or anyone else's research won't hold a candle if bond market squeezes liquidity n Woh bhi US bond Markets n I must remind them that if they are unhappy with notional losses over past 8 months or so then look at Bigger participants ie, FII (Foreign Institution Investors) & FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) ie, these guys had have god knows how much redemption pressure from there clients that they sold at losses in equity as well as lost in Currency conversions too & I can bet that if you guys can't bear -20 to -40% notional losses than have a good look at these guys who booked... yes BOOKED losses at least in range of -40 to -70% because some idiots back in there countries want there money back.


Why this is happening ??

You must be following news & other crappy commentary here n there but I doubt anyone can answer or anticipate.

Please remember that financial news channel n websites make money while you are tuned-in so they hire some average Graduate or MBA to write upto 6 article or Scripts per day just to keep news flowing.

I know this industry first hand & trust me when I tell you they are just click baits n TRP hungry people rarely adding up to your rational view on Investing or Finance.

These guys write upto 6 article a day & I write only 1 or 2 / Month.

Now where would you find a rational insight ? You do the math.

SO let me clear your fundas...why bears are so active lately ? 1 word : CAD (Current Account Deficit)

Current Account Deficit

CAD($) = Exports($) - Imports($)

India every year decides how to fight CAD in its budget allocation done in February but if in any case if goes beyond budgeted number the trust of Mr. Market starts depleting.

Currently CAD is expanding & Mr. Market is not happy with it. We are seeing FII & FPI fleeing to there stable countries because you guessed it right they come from developed economies.

CAD can be controlled easily by Govt. or the RBI.

By looking at equation above you can easily deduce that CAD comes down if Govt. implement further relaxing policies for Exports & it increases but it can't happen quickly.

2nd Option Govt. allocate further funds for CAD & cut its annual budgeted spending on Infra & other departments which Finance ministry clearly said NO to.

3rd Option is to increase Govt's earnings ie, increase taxes but common dost it's an election year no one will shoot themselves in foot. So this option is also thrown out of window.

4th Option is to reduce imports which they opted for. Look at this

These all Govt stuff can be over-ridden by RBI if they use there $ warchest & start buying & hence increase its -$ conversion value. But somehow RBI is quite which means the bigger picture these guys are capable to see is beyond the vision of we the 'VGs' ie, this is normal stuff & is depreciating in line with bunch of other currencies around the world.


Were we wrong ??

Oh common man… why would you think that just because Fund managers from US selling due to redemption How come that makes us wrong Our Businesses are doing just fine n infact Growing.

You have this beautiful VG framework of investing. You are invested & investing more n way ahead of others by not being stupid.

Hopping back on agenda let's move ahead n pick up another amazing business as we slowly but surely inch towards our goals

SpiceJet

Value Pick : Summary

About Business :

SpiceJet is currently promoted by Mr Ajay Singh who held more than 60% in the company as on June 30, 2018. It is a low-cost carrier, and the fourth-largest airline in India by number of domestic passengers carried.

Set up as an air taxi provider in 1984, it diversified into providing domestic aviation services in 1993, and was renamed Modilift Ltd in 1994. The company got its current name in 2005 when the services were re-launched after being shut down in 1996.

SpiceJet operated its first flight in May 2005. Mr Kalanidhi Maran acquired a controlling stake in SJL in June 2010 through the Sun group; the stake was sold back to Mr Ajay Singh in January 2015. The airline operates a fleet of Boeing 737 and Bombardier Dash aircraft.


SWOT Analysis :

Strengths

  • Healthy market position: Market share in domestic market has been steady at 12-13% since June 2015
  • Plans to significantly increase fleet size to around 120 aircraft over the medium term from 58 currently, should help maintain market position.
  • Focus on Tier-II and -III cities and addition of new routes under the Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik (UDAN) scheme should also support market position over the medium term.
  • High operating efficiency: SpiceJet's passenger load factor (PLF) has been the highest in the Indian aviation industry (above 91%) in the 13 quarters through June 2018
  • SpiceJet has efficient fleet utilization and concerted efforts in building a strong brand by focusing on on-time performance and minimal cancellations.
  • It has more fuel-efficient aircrafts & further additions of 11 737MAX and 4 Bombardier Q400s in 2018 itself are further more efficient & hence improving operating profits.
  • Due to large accumulated losses till fiscal 2015, networth remains negative, but I am optimistic that it should turn positive by end of fiscal 2019 due to factors mentioned above.
  • Consistently growing turnover over last 10 years.
  • The remunerations are nominal & are acceptable going forward.

weaknesses

  • The domestic airline industry is highly competitive, underpinned by frequent entry of new players and significant fleet addition by existing ones.
  • During fiscal 2015, the industry saw the launch of services by Vistara and Air Asia India followed by addition of new players such as Air Carnival, Air Costa, Air Pegasus, TruJet, and Zoom Air over the past 12 months.
  • These factors can potentially expose the industry to intense price competition and adversely impact PLFs.
  • Contingent liabilities are around 381 Crores.

Opportunities

  • Focus on Tier-II and -III cities and addition of new routes under the Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik (UDAN) scheme is a total blue ocean for the industry.
  • Further focus on higher margin international flights & creating International Connecting hubs in India in cities like Delhi & Mumbai can further increase air traffic for the airlines.

threats

  • Sharp fluctuation in cross-currency -$ price is always a risk.
  • Increase in Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices. ATF accounts for 35-40% of the total operating costs of industry players.
  • Operations are also sensitive to forex rate fluctuation as lease rentals and maintenance costs.


Business Verdict :

I am myself a frequent flyer has seen tremendous growth in business of SpiceJet over past few years without compromise on quality of service.

Due to CAD issue & on top of that currency manipulations & crude oil prices moving northward in the light of upcoming Iran Sanctions we are witnessing toughest recent times for SpiceJet.

& did I mention that Mr. Ajay Singh ie, promoter of SpiceJet is actually left hand of our Honourable Prime Minister Sh. Narendra Modi.

He is the one who orchestrated 2014 BJP campaign & came up with the slogan Ab ki baar Modi sarkar. Also as every one knows our beloved PM likes foriegn tours a lot & guess who accompanies him n never been exposed to Media... yeah that's right It's Mr. Ajay Singh.

You can correlate how much influence does this guy has & one might suspect that Mr. Modi strong armed Mr Kalanidhi Maran in 2015 to acquired approx. 3000 Crores worth of shares of SpiceJet for only 1 as a gift to Mr. Ajay Singh for helping him win Lok Sabha 2014 elections.

With worst almost factored in current valuations of SpiceJet I believe it has nowhere to go but up only its matter of time.

SpiceJet Ltd is a Multibagger stock in India. ValueGuyz this stock is a definite premium value pick to consider for your research.


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What are Value Picks ?

Value picks are stocks of companies that are believed to be undervalued at NSE or BSE. It is an outcome of huge sattebaaji directed by Stock brokers in that stock making Markets overreact to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term business or fundamentals.

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No, Not anymore. Profit arising from holding Equity shares for 1 Year or more is covered under Long Term Capital Gain ( LTCG) as per Income Tax Act 1961 ( Section 54 ) & are liable to 0% for first 1lk and @10% exceeding 1lk

Got question ?

regards,

jasmeet singh

Founder & Investor

SEBI Regd.(INH100004951)

Jasmeet Singh

About me :

Currently managing assets of 5 Crore+ & still sleep like a baby every night because Valueguyz makes life simpler.

I am passionate about 3 things in my life Financial System, Fitness & Photography

I got introduced to Financial system through Forex Trading back in 2007 during my 3rd Year of Engineering & It was too complex yet magnificent. Officially I entered Indian Stock Market in early 2008 at the very beginning of Global Financial Crisis, but what the hell did I know for me it was the last semester & time to get serious about my passion ie, Counter Strike

Legends :

RoCE : Return on Capital Employed (Effective)

PAT(Avg.) : Net Profit after tax ( Average )

CMP : Current Market Price

MoS : Margin of Safety

Market Cap. : Market Capitalization (Total)

DISCLAIMER

I am a registered Research Analyst with SEBI (INH100004951). My writings n research here at www.valueguyz.com are in accordance with SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014.